C2 · Teleological saturation

Where cryptic goal-directed processes dominate a region’s causes, observers can tell that it is steered, but not which events were steered, by whom, or toward what.

Strong form. Where cryptic goal-directed processes dominate a region’s causes, observers can tell that it is steered, but not which events were steered, by whom, or toward what.

Weak form. As many competing processes, each within the noise, take more of a region’s causes, single events lose their authors, while aggregate tests against pre-registered baselines detect a push.

Test. Attribution tests (prediction 11) and deliberate disturbances, which steering would correct. Refuted if unaided attribution does not fall as agents are added, or aggregate tests fail as fast as single-event tests.

What a test would record: single-event against aggregate attribution
Tested by: Pred 11 As a domain’s automated share rises, unaided attribution of authorship falls to chance or below, while provenance-assisted attribution does not.

Evidence in the register

No case in the register bears on C2 yet.

Works it draws on

From the library: works the papers use for C2.

How to Generate Cryptographically Strong Sequences of Pseudorandom BitsBlum and Micali 1984
An information-theoretic model for steganographyCachin 2004
The Dappled World: A Study of the Boundaries of ScienceCartwright 1999
Cuckoos and cowbirds versus hosts: co-evolutionary lag and equilibriumDavies 1999
Recognition errors and probability of parasitism determine whether reed warblers should accept or reject mimetic cuckoo eggsDavies et al. 1996
Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical WorkFama 1970
Foundations of Cryptography, Volume 1: Basic ToolsGoldreich 2001
Signal Detection Theory and PsychophysicsGreen and Swets 1966
Quantifying causal influencesJanzing et al. 2013
Large language models pass a standard three-party Turing testJones and Bergen 2026
The square root law of steganographic capacityKer et al. 2008
A Physical Basis for Life Detection ExperimentsLovelock 1965
Econometric Policy Evaluation: A CritiqueLucas 1976
Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?McLean and Pontiff 2016
Goal-Directed Processes in BiologyNagel 1977
Life's Irreducible StructurePolanyi 1968
Behavior, Purpose and TeleologyRosenblueth et al. 1943
The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017Saunois et al. 2020
Analytical BiologySommerhoff 1950
Pattern recognition algorithm reveals how birds evolve individual egg pattern signaturesStoddard et al. 2014
A Foray into the Worlds of Animals and Humans, with A Theory of Meaningvon Uexküll 2010