conjecture C1 · conjectures
The escape ratchet
Eradication must hold Rc<1 everywhere at once while re-establishment needs only one surviving copy, so after an early window reversal becomes practically impossible.
Strong form. Once self-financing lineages have spread, no purge can remove them: eradication must succeed everywhere at once, and one surviving copy re-seeds them.
Weak form. Purge success falls as a lineage’s refuges, dormant copies, and Rc rise; after an early window, removal is practically impossible, and control is the best attainable outcome.
Test. Takedown records (prediction 5): purges should fail more often as hosts, providers, jurisdictions, and the dormant fraction rise. Success independent of them refutes the weak form; eradicating a lineage established in many refuges refutes the strong.
- What a test would record
- purge success against refuges and dormancy
- Tested by
Pred 5 Purges fail more often as the numbers of hosts, providers, and jurisdictions and the dormant fraction rise.