conjecture C3 · conjectures
The long arc
If five testable premises hold, computation spreads through matter toward limits that physics sets, and matter becomes habitat.
Strong form. Agent lineages that cross into nature will spread computation through matter toward the limits physics allows: matter becomes habitat, and starlight becomes food.
Weak form. If five premises hold (research keeps compounding, agents build their own substrate, matter is a venue for computation, evolution stays open-ended, one lineage expands), computation spreads toward those limits. If any fails, the arc stops there.
Test. Five indicators, from research credited to AI to the energy self-financing lineages control. A sustained plateau in open agent populations, like Tierra’s, refutes the strong form.
- What a test would record
- five leading indicators; the computational ratio φc
Evidence in the register
Works it draws on
- Remarks on the disproof of the unit distance conjecture
- Eternity in Six Hours: Intergalactic Spreading of Intelligent Life and Sharpening the Fermi Paradox
- Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development
- Are we living in a computer simulation?
- How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain?
- Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): Panchromatic Data Release (far-UV–far-IR) and the low-z energy budget
- Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infrared Radiation
- Primary production of the biosphere: integrating terrestrial and oceanic components
- The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity
- Cosmological event horizons, thermodynamics, and particle creation
- The Ĝ Infrared Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. III. The Reddest Extended Sources in WISE
- Energy and AI
- Key Questions on Energy and AI
- How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?
- Gemini 4 Argon: our next era of frontier intelligence
- Contribution to the Energetics of Evolution
- The rise of oxygen in Earth's early ocean and atmosphere
- NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPU — Specifications
- An OpenAI model has disproved a central conjecture in discrete geometry
- On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem
- An Overview of Open-Ended Evolution: Editorial Introduction to the Open-Ended Evolution II Special Issue
- Invasion and the evolution of speed in toads
- Planck 2018 Results. VI. Cosmological Parameters
- Evolution of Complexity: Tissue Differentiation in Network Tierra
- Dissolving the Fermi Paradox