Time Horizon 1.1

METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update. Both papers cite it among METR's time-horizon sources in Fig. 3a, which plots task length at 50% success against METR's trends, with a doubling time of 196 days since 2019 and 89 days since 2024.

Cited in

both papers (Flagship: Fig. 3; Companion Fig. 3)

Used for

Capability trends; Fig. 3a

Strand

Frontier AI capabilities · Capability trends & benchmarks

Cite

@misc{metr2026th11,
  title = {Time Horizon 1.1},
  author = {METR},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {METR blog},
  url = {https://metr.org/blog/2026-1-29-time-horizon-1-1/},
}